實德金融策略研究部

股票推介 - 蒙牛乳業 (2319.HK)

2015-09-14

蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)建議按一比一發行紅股
蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)公布,董事會已議決建議發行紅股,按記錄日期,合資格股東每一股現有股份派發一股紅股。按公司現發行股份計算,並假設記錄日期前將不再發行或購回股份,及沒有不合資格股東,預期公司會配發及發行19.61億股紅股,紅股發行完成後,擴大的已發行股份合共為39.22億股。

蒙牛乳業主要業務為在中國生產及銷售優質乳製品,包括液體奶產品(如超高溫滅菌奶[UHT奶]、乳飲料及酸奶)、冰淇淋、奶粉及其他乳製品(如奶酪等)。

評級機構穆迪表示,蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)今年上半年業績可支持其「Baa1」發行人評級和高級無抵押債券評級。評級展望仍為穩定。穆迪稱,由於液體奶業務競爭加劇,同時嬰兒配方奶業務面臨分銷壓力,蒙牛的合併後收入小幅下降1.1%,達到256億元人民幣。特別要注意的是,超高溫滅菌奶(UHT奶)和乳飲料收入同比下降10%,蒙牛持股51%的雅士利(01230.HK)的收入下降24.9%。雖然收入疲弱,但由於銷售及分銷支出節制有度,今年上半年蒙牛的EBITDA利潤率改善了12%。調整後債務/EBITDA維持穩定,依然為2.3倍,符合「Baa1」評級。穆迪預計未來6-12個月該公司的EBITDA利潤率和槓桿率將維持在類似水平。

蒙牛乳業(2319.HK)股價從接近50元回落超過一半,從走勢圖看,23.50元有較大支撐,建議投資者於26元或之下買入,目標30.50元。



(筆者為香港證監會持牌人士 - 李慧芬小姐)

電郵: research@successfn.com

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