實德金融策略研究部

油價簡評

2015-12-01

人民幣入籃後,對油價是否構成支持?

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)宣佈把人民幣納入為特別提款權SDR,明年第三季之後開始,便會正式成為SDR內的第五種貨幣,人民幣在SDR內的百分比是10.92%,僅次於其在美元(41.7%)及歐元(30.9%)的份額。

這次人民幣入籃,當然對中國實體經濟不會提供任何即時的推動力,但市場人仕預期中國政府及人民銀行會加速建立匯率機制市場化、深化金融系統改革、以及強化國內經濟改革,對中國經濟前景的信心會增加,亦連帶中國的能源需求展望加添憧憬。

故此,WTI美國西德州輕質原油價格有機會逐步完結由今年六月開始形成的收窄三角,從而靠穩向好。

假若WTI美國西德州輕質原油價格跌至每桶$38美元的下方,可以建立好倉盤看高一線。

WTI美國西德州輕質原油價格日線圖:




郭啟倫

電郵research@successfn.com

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