實德金融策略研究部

紐西蘭央行出乎意料之外地減息,對紐元迎頭痛擊

2016-03-10

紐西蘭央行出乎意料之外地減息,對紐元迎頭痛擊

紐西蘭央行議息後決定減息四分一厘,指標利率下降至2.25厘的紀錄新低。市場反應較大,因為普遍預期會維持不變。

紐西蘭央行會後聲明指,前景風險衆多,從國際外部因素而言,圍繞著中國所帶出之環球增長展望,以及環球金融市場前景的下行相關性。而主要的內部風險是包括奶製品行業的疲弱、通脹預期下跌、延續高水平的淨移民,以及房屋市場的壓力。

而紐西蘭央行行長表示,該行不排除在未來再會減息超過一次的可能性,但亦有可能無需要再下調利率,他強調主要是視乎經濟狀況而定。

紐元在紐西蘭央行意外減息,以及再有減息預期下,短期間有機會下跌至0.6450水平(圖一)。

(圖一)紐元兌美元日線圖:




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