實德金融策略研究部

歐洲各國正面臨一個經濟重大難關

2016-03-11

道指收市由升轉跌,美股開市一度上升過百點,唯歐央行一句短時間內,未有打算再以減息去刺激經濟,市場放大了這句歐洲不會再減息的說話, 歐股收市跌勢轉急收市,令美股收市最終以回吐收場。

道指輕量下挫, 對港股該不會構成重大回吐壓力, 道指跌穿17000點不足為患, 反之道指未能急速回升,令三月進行加息機會減低。相信恒指俳徊區間為19750 -20350點。歐洲的跌幅,相信只是市場短暫下行借口,但從歐央行擴大量寛去看,大家心中有數歐洲各國正面臨一個經濟重大難關,歐元區以當年美國去救本土經濟一樣,以量寛去放水, 但美國當年是集中火力救自己一個,歐元區由多國組成,將來能否齊心一致去救,成一大疑問,這個或許是將來股災,即港股步向再下跌的一個主因。

內地和港股昨以下跌收場,恒指守19800點問題不大,昨成交金額只有540多億,為近年低位,反映投資者入市意慾不大,看來股市要進一步突破的話,除非內地股市大盤由2800點開始大反彈,否則要在短線再突破力度便會減弱,且看後市內地股市能否引領港股先守後攻。

美兌日圓回見113.30水平,資金正進行貨幣戰,在這種市況,自問技術低的人,還是瞓多陣好過,免得傷神。筆者仍是老一句,股市未能升穿熊一底20380的話,大反彈未確認, 持資金50%, 萬無一失。今天週五,在市場交投氣氛淡風下,料不會有太大作為, 只看能否守19800關口以上便可以了。

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