實德金融策略研究部

歐洲央行使出綜合招式去刺激經濟,但是否已病入膏肓,藥石無靈?

2016-03-11

歐洲央行作出多於市場預期的刺激方案,其中包括不同形式的減息、增加購買債券規模,以及向銀行發放超低成本貸款等措施,該行還決定,把歐元區非銀行企業發行的投資級別歐元計價債券,歸納為買債範圍之內。

歐洲央行呈現出對抗頑固的低通脹局面,以及提振疲弱的歐元區經濟之決心。然而,新的季度經濟預測顯示,預計歐元區經濟增長及通脹水平,皆遠低於該行去年12月份的預期。歐洲央行目前預計,歐元區今年通脹率只是0.1%,低於去年12月份所預期的1%,也遠低於歐洲央行接近2%的目標水平。

歐洲央行還下調了歐元區經濟增長預期,最新的預計是,歐元區今年本地生產總值(GDP)將增長1.4%,而明年GDP將增長1.7%,早前的預期增幅分別是1.7%及1.9%。

投資者對歐洲央行最新刺激措施可以理解為心有餘卻力不足,故此,歐元兌美元經過一輪拾級而上的反彈走勢後,短線在1.1300附近應有阻力,可以在該水平附近看淡一線(見圖一)。

(圖一) 歐元兌美元日線圖:




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