實德金融策略研究部

『貨幣升降機』 美元兌人民幣應可延續跌勢

2016-04-06

中國國家發展與改革委員會價格監測中心,昨天在官方媒體《中國証券報》撰文表示,今年國內消費物價格指數(CPI)漲幅將會略有擴大,生產者價格指數(PPI)降幅有所減小,通縮壓力將會減輕,而房地產價格上漲幅度將會超去年,2016年價格變化總體形勢好於去年。這價格走勢預期,應會有助人民幣靠穩向好。

縱使發改委在報告上指出,在全球經濟增速疲弱、美元升值預期,以及中國對外貿易下降等負面因素影響下,人民幣匯率在
2016年整體將會呈現小幅向下的走勢,而匯率波動的頻率及幅度將有所加大。

然而,發改委也重申,人民幣匯率不存在持續大幅度貶值基礎,中國也不需要通過競爭性貶值人民幣,來擴大對外貿易量。投資者應會逐步減少看淡人民幣的預期,美元兌人民幣中短線會乏力大幅度反彈,可以看淡至
6.4250水平

美元兌人民幣日線:




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