實德金融策略研究部

穆迪的警告應會推低英鎊

2016-03-23

英國在6月的脫歐公投結果未有明顯方向,而市場對結果的反應暫時難以邏輯化,在這不確定性的拖累下,英鎊應會向下發展。

另一方面,評級機構穆迪表示,假若英國在6月公投的結果是選擇退出歐盟,將會面臨「明顯的下行風險」,同時再警告此情況可能導致英國債券信貸評級更容易被下調。

縱使穆迪目前對英國的債券信貸評級為較「AAA」低一級,評級展望為穩定。而已,穆迪指出,英國要是退出歐盟,評級展望或會變成負面,因為英國脫歐可能導致不確定性上升,而且隨著英國經濟增長在中期內稍為轉弱,這種不確定性或會加強。

因此,英鎊兌美元在短期間會呈現出疲弱走勢,可以看淡一線至1.3950水平。

英鎊兌美元週線圖:



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