實德金融策略研究部

日圓強勢未有止息跡象,美元兌日圓下望105是否囊中物?

2016-04-07

日圓現時正不斷強勢測試2014年10月份以來的高位,市場人仕仍在享受著早前,日本首相安倍晉三有關各國須要避免任意干預壓低本身貨幣匯率的言論。故此,美元兌日圓的跌勢有機會愈見急劇。

此外,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在週三《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)上的研究報告中表示,新興市場可能正面對資金外流而發生危機,資金流入減少的主要原因是新興市場,跟發達經濟體之間增長前景的差別縮小,而資金淨流入速度放緩,是鑑於資金流入減少,以及流出增加兩方面的共同影響。

假設資金從新興市場流出,因應尋找資金避難所的貨幣多元化策略,而選擇追入日圓的動作已經開始,並且會延續下去的話,美元兌日圓進一步下挫至105水平,絕不會是天方夜譚,遙不可及的情況。美元兌日圓在中短線可以看淡一線至105水平。

美元兌日圓週線圖:




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