實德金融策略研究部

美國數據反射區

2015-07-02

美國6月份ADP私人機構新增職位數目較預期及上次為高,對今晚稍後公佈的非農就業人數結果,有正面的前瞻性推斷。

行業比例方面,二十三萬七千個私人機構新增職位當中,有二十二萬五千個是來自服務行業,足有百分之九十五的份額。服務業職位的大幅度增長,絕對是消費意欲有邁向暢旺的啟示,對美國經濟基礎逐步站穩陣腳的可能性,有重要的支持。故此,這資料結果是加添了聯儲局上調利率的機會。

然而,今晚提前發佈的非農就業人數資料結果,才更清楚透徹地說給大家聽美國現時就業市場的狀況。平均預期是較上次二十八萬這數目為少的二十三萬,只要結果不是低於二十一萬,市場人仕應會視為理想的結果,有機會刺激美國股票市場的表現。另一方面,亦會提振追入美元回避加息風險的買盤。

除非6月份非農就業人數低於十九萬五千,否則絕對有理由相信美股及美元在短線間有上升的動力。

郭啟倫

(The above displayed are just writers’ own opinions and for readers’ reference only. Financial markets are volatile and please be careful of the risks.)NOTICE

Investment involves risk. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profits made as a result of buying and selling investment and financial products. Before investment, you should be aware of all the risks involved and carefully consider your investment objectives, trading experience, and level of risk acceptance. If you have any question, please seek advice from an independent professional advisor.

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