實德金融策略研究部

貨幣升降機

2015-07-09

美元兌日圓在六月五日觸及十三年的高位後,已逐步回吐了4.3%,近兩天的跌幅加快速度,有部份因由是來自環球股市大震盪,以及希臘會否被逼脫離歐元區的負面情緒,所引發投資者追入日圓作為避險工具,對日圓提供的動力。

然而,這單一避險因素未必有足夠的動力,把日圓的弱勢完全扭轉過來,因為到目前為止,所謂全球各國的貨幣戰爭並未有結束,在低增長前景的推算下,各國的貨幣匯率政策皆是偏向低匯價水準,來提振本國的出口去幫助經濟。故此,日本政府沒有任何理據去自動退出這貨幣戰爭。

從美元兌日圓的月線圖看(見下圖),經過本輪的回吐整固後,下一個要挑戰的阻力應會是127.50水準,應可逐步部署看好美元兌日圓向上發展的空間。



郭啟倫

電郵: research@successfn.com

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