實德金融策略研究部

貨幣升降機

2015-07-21

美元還有幾多上升空間,是環球投資者不斷在尋找的答案,以美匯指數在六月十八日開始,重現向上攀升走勢的情況來推斷,美匯指數在這新一輪的升浪大有機會上試數值100之趨勢。

美國聯儲局在六月十七日結束了一連兩日的議息會議後,美匯指數便隨即展現出上升走勢,其動力有兩大源頭。首先是聯儲局在今年加息的意向甚囂塵上,令美元進一步被追捧為,對沖加息風險的資金避難所角色在擴大,其次是投資者對美國經濟前景的信心逐步在增添,兩者因素對美元提供源源不絕的上升動力。

構成美匯指數的六種貨幣,按比重百分比的大小依次序為: 歐元(57.6%),日圓(13.6%),英鎊(11.9%),加拿大元(9.1%),瑞典克朗(4.2%)及瑞士法郎(3.6%)。歐元及英鎊在短期間的跌勢,未必會為美匯指數在這一升浪提供太大的推動,反而比重較小的日圓、加拿大元及瑞士法郎,似乎有更大的下跌空間去提振美匯指數造好。

郭啟倫

電郵: research@successfn.com

(The above displayed are just writers’ own opinions and for readers’ reference only. Financial markets are volatile and please be careful of the risks.)NOTICE

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