The US September overall and core consumer price indices were higher than both the previous and expected figures compared to the same period last year. This lagging inflation data has increased investors’ expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Interest rate futures indicate that after the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike this month rose from 22% to 35%, while the probability of a December rate hike is around 90%. This upward trend in Fed rates should create a need for gold investors to cash out and avoid related risks in the short term, putting downward pressure on gold prices.

On the other hand, the escalating tensions in the Middle East show no signs of easing, which will also dampen the willingness to buy gold at higher risk. Gold prices may encounter strong downward pressure after rising to around $4,180 in the short term. Gold prices are likely to fluctuate between $4,079 and $4,180 in the short term. Pay close attention to potential entry opportunities at the higher end of this range. There is potential for further declines in the short term, with $4,200 serving as a key support level. Please manage your risk accordingly.

Risk Warning: This article is for market analysis purposes only. Price ranges and levels mentioned are for market observation and do not constitute investment advice. Precious metal prices are highly volatile; please make independent and prudent decisions and manage your own risk.

Gold price chart (1 hour):

Ferris Kwok

Chief Analyst
Success Finance Group

Email: ferris.kwok@successfn.com